The electricity demand forecast, covering the period up to FY 2019/20 is prepared considering the country’s macro- economic indicators and rural electrification expansion programmes. Power consumption data of FY 2004/05 has been taken as a basis for this load forecast. Total energy requirement in Nepal is projected to grow by an average of 8 percent per annum over the forecast period, from 2,299.9 GWh in FY 2003/04 to 7894 GWh in FY 2019/20. Peak demand is projected to grow from 512.2 MW in FY 2003/04 to 1733 MW in FY 2019/20. The result of the Load Forecast Study-2004/05 is presented in

The capacity balance at the time of system peak up to FY 2009/2010 incorporating the planned projects as given in the Generation Expansion Plan is presented in   Table 2.

[1]peaking capacity in the winter months of December

The Capacity Balance presented above shows that there is shortfall of supply over demand from FY 2005/06 even after utilizing the existing thermal generating capacity of NEA, the 50 MW import available under the Power Exchange Agreement with India and the limited number of planned projects that could be made available for generation in FY 2008/09 and 2009/10. Contingency measures such as increased import, utilization of available captive generation of industrial establishments and demand side management need to be explored in those years.

Considering the availability of the captive generation, which is not in appreciable quantity, the increased import and the demand side management could prove to be effective. Out of the two alternatives, the demand side management along with the use of efficient lamps in domestic households and other usages for the coming fiscal years could prove to be more effective. If a 10% penetration could be made in Name Kathmandu Type Valley only, where the peak load is more than 200 MW, the peak demand reduction will be more than 15 MW, considering 57% as lighting load (WECS report).

Table 3: Generation Expansion Plan

The result of the transmission study indicates that FY 2006/07 and 2007/08 are the most critical years in terms of system stability. Commissioning of Khimti-Dhalkebar 220 kV transmission line (to be initially charged at 132 kV) by FY 2006/07 is of paramount importance if serious transmission problems are to be averted in and after FY 2006/07. In case of any delay or otherwise, if the commissioning of this 220 kV transmission line fails to materialize by FY 2006/07, any outage of the existing Hetauda-Bharatpur 132 kV line will make system unstable.

Originally, Middle Marsyangdi power was planned to be evacuated through Marsyangdi powerhouse as well as through Damauli Substation. But due to resource constraints, the section of the line from Middle Marsyangdi to Damauli will be completed only in FY 2008/09. This will obviously decrease the reliability of power from Middle Marsyangdi, since this arrangement does not support the contingency criteria. NEA is approaching prospective donors for necessary finance for the construction of this section at the earliest.

Under the NEA Transmission and Distribution component of WB, HMGN and NEA funded Power Development Project; a 75 km long Khimti-Dhalkebar 220 kV transmission line will be built. Once commissioned, the Khimti-Dhalkebar line will enhance the reliability of the power system, and improve the voltage profile of the eastern part of the grid and pave way for power evacuation from planned projects like Upper Tamakoshi.

In FY 2009/10 Hewa (10 MW) and Mewa (18 MW) are scheduled to be completed and in the same corridor Kabeli- A (30 MW) and Tamor (83 MW) is also planned to be commissioned by the FY 2010/11 and FY 2011/12 respectively. Considering all the NEA's planned hydropower projects and several identified power projects under IPPs, power evacuation study for all these power stations were carried out. Based on this study, 132kV Tamor-Mewa-Kabeli-A - Hewa-Duhabi transmission line will be constructed by FY 2009/10. The availability of hydropower sites to be developed by IPPs in and around the Sunkoshi area has created a bottleneck in power evacuation. Several IPPs have been unable to undertake new power development initiatives in the area because of the difficulties in power evacuation. A power evacuation study of Sunkoshi area will be made in 2004/05 in order to analyze the present and future situation and recommend necessary steps for strengthening the existing transmission capabilities.